Shortly after the invasion of Iraq, I was in Egypt and Jordan, giving some talks on American literature at the behest of the U.S. State Department. The idea was for American writers to meet with students and other writers from the Middle East - a form of cultural diplomacy that seemed, at least to me, a good way to promote serious conversations, especially at a time when American bombs were falling nearby on Iraqi civilians - not a particularly useful way to promote ties between people.
While in Amman, I was introduced to an army general who had spent a good deal of time in the region, and he was heading to Iraq the next week. I remember our conversation vividly. I asked him where Iraq would be in ten years, and he said: "Well, for a start, we'll be long gone from the region. American troops will have been pulled out because this war is going to prove unpopular and wildly expensive, and it will have a very negative effect on the U.S. economy. Second, the Shiite majority will have taken control in Iraq, and they will largely be directed by Iran, their Shiite cousins. The fight between the Sunnis and the Shiites will continue, as only Saddam Hussein, using brutality, could have kept this country together. I don't see that the US will have gained anything but an enemy in the region. On top of which, millions of refugees will have left Iraq for safer places."
Now, ten years later, I often think back to this chance conversation. It was spot on, and the situation in Iraq is possibly even worse than the general predicted. Every week there are bombings, usually in Shiite neighborhoods, and Al Qaida, once barely present in Iraq, has found a footing there. The cost in Iraqi lives has been staggering - more than a hundred thousand dead, and many more wounded. Most communities still lack basic infrastructure and services, such as water and electricity.
And with Nouri al-Malaki in charge, American-Iraqi relations are strained - to put it mildly. The Shiite strongman supports the Syrian dictatorship and has allied himself with Iran. Ned Parker and Raheem Salman - two longtime Middle Eastern correspondents - have written in the World Policy Journal that "...the reign of Maliki is an object lesson to other nascent Islamist leaders across the Middle East of how to consolidate one's rule from the rubble of a toppled state."
Calculating the cost to the American public in actual tax dollars is even more problematic. Millions in no-bid contracts were awarded to civilian companies like Blackwater - and it's impossible to calculate the effects this conflict has had - and will continue to have - on members of our military and their families. One way or another, we'll be paying for this war for decades to come.
Given this moment of retrospective, it's hard to imagine that anyone could ever again choose war as a rational or moral option. One can make a compelling argument that events like the U.S. invasion of Iraq simply make difficult matters worse.
- "Iraq Anniversary" originally aired 03/26/13 on Vermont Public Radio . See the commentary at vpr.net.